Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali
نویسندگان
چکیده
As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence precipitation for long periods time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered important element management resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study sought to investigate rainfall variability and frequency 1991 2020 Bamako based monthly data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized index (SPI) 12-month, 6-month 3-month timescales SPI annual totals were used characterized area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I Pearson III (P3) fitted with variables (severity duration) future planning management. Non-parametric test Mann-Kendall trend was also detect data. results showed that 12-month SPI, experienced two (02) extreme one July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) another June 2015 -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). years represented 46.67% overall according totals. result further indicated goodness fit test, P3 distribution represents best both severity duration over Bamako. expected experience several severe severities higher shorter future. Severities 1, 2, 6, 10-month had return ranged 2.4 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100-year 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, 49.14 severities, respectively, durations associated these 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, 48.2 months, respectively.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2327-4344', '2327-4336']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2023.117003